


Statistically Improbable

by kksunflowerbaby



Category: Criminal Minds (US TV)
Genre: Alternate Universe - Criminal Minds Setting, Behavioral Analysis Unit (Criminal Minds), F/M, Fluff, Friends to Lovers, Gen, Reader-Insert, Romantic Fluff, Smart Is The New Sexy, Spencer Reid Fluff, criminal minds - Freeform, reader - Freeform
Language: English
Status: Completed
Published: 2020-10-24
Updated: 2020-10-24
Packaged: 2021-03-08 22:02:31
Rating: General Audiences
Warnings: No Archive Warnings Apply
Chapters: 1
Words: 1,919
Publisher: archiveofourown.org
Story URL: https://archiveofourown.org/works/27173533
Author URL: https://archiveofourown.org/users/kksunflowerbaby/pseuds/kksunflowerbaby
Summary: The one where you and Reid are competitive over numbers and statistics.But a bet between Garcia and Emily have you and Reid making a bet of your own...and doing everything possible to win.
Relationships: Spencer Reid/Reader, Spencer Reid/You
Comments: 4
Kudos: 133





	Statistically Improbable

You had alway known what you wanted in life. To help people. When you joined the FBI at the ripe age of twenty three, you had set your sights on the Behavioral Analysis Unit in Quantico. A year later, you were welcomed onto the team. 

You loved your team, you really did. Which made the long nights, continuous flights, and difficult cases worth it. You even looked forward to work every day because it meant you got to see some of your favourite people in the entire world. 

One of those people was a young Mr. Spencer Reid. 

From the beginning of your tenure on the team, Spencer had been by your side. You liked some of the same books, and a long conversation on the dichotomy of good and evil from Mary Shelley’s Frankenstein was enough to make you two the best of friends. 

You had each others backs and trusted each other implicitly. You trusted every other team member, of course, but there was something different about Spencer. The two of you connected in a way that no one else did. 

Neither of you complained about it. 

One thing that made the two of you work as best friends was the fact that both of you were competitive when it came to statistics and numbers. While Reid could remember every fact he ever read and every number he ever saw, you could calculate things faster than anyone else on the team, which made for some lively debates in the bullpen. 

Most of the team was in on it, of course. They knew that the two of you were cut from the same cloth. They didn’t mind when your debates (ahem, bickering) took over some of their meetings while analysing numbers for a case. 

Which what was happening right now. 

The team was in Atlanta, Georgia where there had been a string of kidnappings. Same profile: women, (hair colour) hair, and (height) height. That was the only thing that mattered. The women, four so far, were from all different walks of life and were taken at different times. The only thing that connected them were their looks. 

Which happened to match yours. Exactly. 

Reid was currently arguing about the statistical chance that the unsub would change his behaviour in order to adjust for a new data point (being you, sitting in a park down the street from where one of the women had been taken). 

You cut in. “No, the data point isn’t the change. It’s the change to his routine that we should be focusing on. I’m not the only person with this hair colour, there are over two thousand within twenty miles alone. I think that the unsub will take this chance. More so than if I were to simply be placed somewhere he’s already taken from.”

“I don’t think it’s likely—” Reid started, but you beat him to it.

You had already calculated the statistics when you open your mouth to correct him. “There’s a thirty-seven percent chance that he would do that. With my plan, it’s closer to sixty-two.”

The team, long used to the two of you pulling numbers seemingly out of thin air, don’t contest the stats. Hotch thought it over for a moment before nodding. “We’ll go with (Name)’s plan. Sorry, Reid.”

Reid accepted it, and the team stood from the table, breaking off to do different things before the plan was set in place. 

You walked over to the coffee station and poured yourself a cup. 

“Did you factor in time of day?” Reid’s voice came from behind you. 

You turned, bringing the coffee cup to your lips. “I did. I also considered the factor of the wind.”

“That doesn’t—” Reid closed his mouth when he realised you were joking. “That’s very funny, (Name).”

“That was the point, Doctor,” you replied. 

“I think your plan is closing to fifty-four percent,” he said, still thinking about the case. 

“No, I’m sure—”

“Want to bet on it?” 

Reid’s offer made you think for a moment. “Loser buys dinner?”

“Deal.”

And you shook on it. 

The case went on, and your numbers ending up holding strong. The unsub had gone after you, and the team had easily captured him. He was put behind bars and the four women were found in the basement of his office. They were returned safely to their families and the team packed their bags, ready to go home themselves. 

When the jet landed back in Virginia, Reid bought you a granola bar from the vending machine in the office. 

“Enjoy your dinner, Agent,” he said, matching your teasing tone from earlier. 

And that’s where it started. If you ever had to pick an exact moment in time that you and Reid started betting on everything that you could, it would be the second that he handed you the granola bar. 

Bets included but were not limited to: the duration of a case, how long it took Hotch to yell at Garcia for how she spoke to Derek, odds on sporting events, statistics of graduation rates from your colleges, and everything in between. 

Garcia and Emily had their own side betting game: how long it would take before you and Reid ended up together. 

But, of course, you and Reid knew about it. 

So you made your own bet with Reid. 

You were sitting in the bullpen, catching up on some paperwork from the previous case. Reid was sitting at his desk, taking care of his own tasks. Emily was off getting her coffee and Garcia was explaining something to Derek. The bullpen was empty except for you and the young doctor.

“Hey,” you hissed, trying to get his attention subtly. 

He looked up and met your gaze. “What?”

“I have an idea,” you told him. 

“You have ideas all the time.”

You fought the urge to roll your eyes. “I was thinking about the bet Garcia and Emily have going on.”

He nodded. 

“What if we messed with the data points?”  
Reid raised his brows. “By doing what?”

“Making their bet seem unlikely.” 

He chuckled, different ideas running through his head. “I’m in.”

And it was on. You and Reid, being best friends, spent a lot of time together around the team. That was what Emily and Garcia had based their bet on. So you and Reid spent time with the other members of the team. 

Nothing changed in your friendship; you still texted constantly with each other and traded ideas for cases. But you just hung out with JJ while Reid spent time with Derek. No one had said anything, and the bet was extended between Emily and Garcia. Emily started to doubt that the two of you would be together within two years while Garcia was gunning for six months. 

You thought that you and Reid had them fooled. It was fun to plot together on different ways to make them think different things. 

But there was one thing that you didn’t factor in. 

Spencer actually kissing you. 

It had been after a case where there had been a close call. You had been in the line of fire, but the unsub had been terminated before your life and come even close to being at risk. 

But it was enough for Spencer to kiss you when he drove you home to your apartment. 

And you kissed him back. 

Emily and Garcia knew nothing. You spent more time together, almost forgetting about the idea for misleading the pair. Months passed, and everything seemed to go back to normal. 

Cases went by and criminals were caught. Work was work, after all. 

A year and a half later, Emily whispered to you, “You and Reid…is there anything there?”

The original idea to mislead them popped into your head. “No, why?”

You told Spencer later that night in bed. He laughed, and said, “What if we changed the bet?”

“How so?”

“I bet that they will figure out that we’re dating a year from now.” 

You thought it over for a moment, hedging the numbers. “I’ll say…two years.”

Instead of shaking on it, Spencer pulled the covers over you and kissed you.

More time passed, and Garcia asked Spencer. He said nothing, for it had only been four months since your bet with him. 

Both of you acted the same at the office, both lived together outside of work. When you moved in together, it was surprising that the team didn’t comment on the pair of you showing up to work at the same time every day. 

And, then, a day before Spencer’s guess of a year, Garcia sat on the edge of your desk. “Listen, cupcake, I have seen you smiling around the office. You’re getting laid.”

It was said without decorum and loudly. Everyone in the bullpen turned, suddenly in tune with the conversation. Over Garcia’s shoulder, Spencer winked. 

“And if I have been getting laid?” You asked lightly, sipping your cup of coffee. 

“With whom? Who is your mystery prince that you haven’t told any of us about?” Garcia pressed, grinning widely. 

“He’s handsome,” you said, because it was true. 

Spencer was practically puffing his chest out, thinking that he was winning his bet with you.

“And subtle,” you added, meeting Spencer’s eye. There’s no way he was going to win the bet based off of something like this. 

“Is it our darling Spencer Reid?” Emily asked, raising her brows.

“No,” you said, because you were competitive. You loved Spencer with every atom of your body but no way in hell were you letting him win this.

“Cheater,” Spencer cut in. 

Everyone in the office turned to him. He was fully grinning now. 

“What?” You asked, confused. “I didn’t cheat!”

“You’re lying, which is cheating,” he said matter-of-factly. “Which means I win.”

Emily and Garcia wore matching expressions of shock as he stood from his desk and pulled you up to your feet before kissing you deeply. You kissed him back, because sometimes when he kissed you, you forgot about everything. Including your bet that was a year in the making.

“You’re—the two of—you’re together?” Derek sputtered, the first one to speak. 

“It’ll be three years in December,” Spencer said, not looking away from your eyes.

You smile up at him. 

“I KNEW IT!” Garcia shrieked excitedly. She turned to Emily and shouted, “I WON!”

“No, I was the one to ask—” Emily tried to cut in, but Garcia wouldn’t let her.

“Because I told you I was going to be the one to ask if she was getting laid!”

“Because Spencer was the one who talked to you—”

You looked up to your boyfriend, who was doing his very best impression of a deer caught in the headlights. “You’re the one who cheated! Ha! You nudged her in the right direction because tomorrow is the year!”

Spencer had the good sense to look guilty. “I might have said something…”

“So I win.” You smile, feeling proud of yourself. “What did I win? Since we didn’t go over that when we made the bet originally?”

Spencer looked thoughtful for a moment. “What if the winner picks the venue?”

You were confused. “Venue? What venue?”

And Spencer dropped to his knee, right there in the office in front of everyone who you loved. He had a ring in his hand and you suddenly couldn’t see because of the tears in your eyes. 

Another thing you hadn’t calculated. 

But you couldn’t find yourself minding.

**Author's Note:**

> Oh, wow. I wrote this in one sitting in record time. I hope that you enjoy it, because I most certainly did! 
> 
> Thank you for reading!
> 
> Leave a comment, they make me write faster!


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